WIllie, Mickey and WAR

By JT

 Allen Barra is an excellent researcher and writer and I really enjoyed his book Mickey and Willie: Mantle and Mays, the Parallel Lives of Baseball's Golden Age. In my view, it was well researched and a great read.

However, to be honest, I had one problem with the book. In my view, it seemed to have a slight "Mickey Mantle is better" bias and it showed up in two ways. First, the term "Gold Glove" did not appear in the book. Mays won twelve and Mantle three. Second, in the two appendices, Barra used two baseball metrics that favored Mantle. One was Pete Palmer's player rating (TPR) and the other was Bill James's Win Shares (WS). There are other metrics, such as WAR and versions of it that are not so clear cut.

Thus, I've searched the Web and found all the metrics and put them into one chart so folks can take a look and make their own determination as to who have may have been better (if anyone really was).

Here are the various WAR with TPR and WS in a chart.
(click to enlarge)

With Plamer's total player rating, I added 2.5 to both to make the totals more similar to the WAR numbers, it could also be called TPR above average with 2.5 being average. I did the same for both players so this will still favor Mantle. Most analyses of the AL and NL in that era rated the average player higher in the NL than the Al due to better integration of the NL but I ignored that for TPR. Had a good analysis of what the average player in each league was, the 2.5 number I chose would be different. Perhaps 2.5 for NL and 2.2 for AL, for example.

With Bill James's Win Shares I divided it by 3.5 to make it come out to about the same as others so it would be weighted more evenly. Again, it still favors Mantle.

I also adjusted Mickey Mantle's 1963 to a full season, which helps him in the graphs down below, the 3-year, 4-year averages, etc.

You can click on links to go to the source for charts.

Key: TPR+2.5 Pete Palmer's version http://www.amazon.com/Total-Baseball-Official-Encyclopedia-League/dp/1930844018 WS ÷ 3.5 Bill James's version http://seamheads.com/baseballgauge/player.php?playerID=mayswi01 http://seamheads.com/baseballgauge/player.php?playerID=mantlmi01 BFW+3 retrosheet.org version http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/M/Pmaysw101.htm http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/M/Pmantm101.htm BR-WAR baseball-reference.com version http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mayswi01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mantlmi01.shtml FG-WAR fangraphs.com version http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1008315&position=OF#advanced http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1008082&position=OF WARP baseballprospectus.com version http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=25672 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=25475 BP-WAR baseballprojection.com version http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/m/maysw101.htm http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/m/mantm101.htm BG-WAR Baseballgauge version http://seamheads.com/baseballgauge/player.php?playerID=mantlmi01 http://seamheads.com/baseballgauge/player.php?playerID=mayswi01 DR-WARP Dan Rosenheck's version baseball think factory http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/willie_mays/P100 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/ranking_the_hall_of_merit_center_fielders_discussion/P100 T-WAR My own version of WAR Uses Michael Humphrey's revolutionary new fielding statistic, called Defensive Regression Analysis (DRA)   DRA for defense, WPA/ LI for offense, and Smith's "holds" from Baseball refernce.com So, as you can see above there were peaks and valleys for both players. Here are some different averages for different periods of time. People can make up their own minds, as Coach TJ Troup, who saw both play, says, "Mantle was amazing power" and "Mays was sustained greatness". These charts show that those comments are true. (Click to enlarge)

The Say Hey Kid's A-Mays-ing 1971 Season

By JT

The passing of Hank Aaron certainly was sad and gave me great pause because like millions and millions I watched on television as he hit his 714th and 715th home runs, trying and breaking Babe Ruth's vaunted record. 

In reviewing his career it was clear that he was the better hitter between himself and my favorite baseball player—Willie Mays. In the late-1960s Mays just got old, he slowed down, got injured. And with the Mets he was a part-time player who slumped early and late in both 1972 and 1973 (though his mid-season stats were decent). 

So, while Hank was still hammerin' and Willie fell behind.

However, that is a topic for another day. 

A couple of weeks ago a Twitter account I followed asked to post great seasons for athletes 40 years of age and older (in reference to Brady and Brees and other older quarterbacks). My response was Willie Mays' 1971 season with 18 home runs and 23 stolen bases.

What I didn't do is look at that 1971 season in-depth, comparing it to other MLB seasons of players 40-and-older.

Here is an in-depth look with charts from Stathead Baseball. 

After all these years, Mays' 18 home runs at age 40 in 1971 is still tied for 20th all-time for players 40 and over. At the time it was third. 

Mays' 23 stolen bases are tied for seventh all-time for players of 40 and over. 

His stolen base percentage is second-best all-time for players 40 and older—

Mays had five triples in 1971, tied for 13th best-ever. And eight ahead of him are not really comparable due to eras. In the integration and live-ball era, he ranks much higher. 

Mays led the NL in walks and that total is 4th best ever among old guys.

Mays also led the NL in on-base percentage and that, among 40+, ranks in the top six ever—

For slugging percentage, over 40 with 350 or more plate appearances Mays is 15th. For 500 or more plate appearances he's sixth. 

His OPS is ninth—

No, we've buried the lede—His WAR is the best all-time for the geriatric crowd.

And his power-speed number is also tops -definition from BR

There are probably more stats. But 1971 was truly an A-Mays-ing year for Willie. The Giants won the West and lost to the Pirates in the NLCS.  He played a lot at first base and as can be seen at 40 he did a lot of things (power, speed, getting on base) that a lot of younger players couldn't and didn't do.

Not only that Willie sported orange-striped Adidas spikes, the first-time he wore something other than all-black in his career, and the looked great (see photos at top of this post)

In the age of Drew Brees and Tom Brady, here is a tip of the glass to the Say Hey Kid.

Let's Talk About Roy White

 By JT  

The modern baseball metrics love Roy White but back in the day he was known as a good but not really a great player. His traditional statistics were fine, but not eye-popping compared to other left fielders (Willie Stargell for instance) or even other outfielders such as Reggie Jackson or Yankee teammate Bobby Murcer. 

Here are his career stats—

He had a nice four-year run from 1970-73, and thanks to Baseball-Reference, we can see his for year average for that span.

White was known as an excellent field, based on the literature of the day and then in he 80s and 90s his defensive metrics were good but still, not terrific.  Then, in Wizardry: Baseball's All-Time Greatest Fielders Revealed by Michael Humphreys Roy White got a lot of cred in that he was named one of the top left-fielders ever. 

In dField, a metric found on Baseball-Reference.com White was credited with saving about 35 runs in his career. Bill James' metric, Win Shares tripled that amount. Buy Humphreys' metric DRA credited him with around 180 or so, including an average of 17.4 or so from 1968-77, a sensational number for a decade span. 

In that same 1968-77 decade, White hit .277 and averaged 16 home runs 70 RBI and 22 steals a season while drawing 88 walks per 162 games. 

In my 5-tool number which is loosely based on the Power-Speed number found on Baseball-Reference.com—

White also fares well. He totals 149.3 (Mays is best-ever 286.8, 17.0 average)

As we mentioned the metics love White, WAR, WARP, WAA, all of them. In 1970 White didn't make The Sporting News AL All-Star team or the AP or NEA All-MLB All-Star team, the was chosen for the MLB All-Star game at mid-season (in 1969, too). 

However, if WAR is used, White would be the ALl-MLB and All-AL left-fielder. And if Humphreys' DRA were the defensive metric used rather than dWAR he'd be the top outfielder in the game for that year. 

Here is 1971 based on the same WAR premise. In 1971 he did get a few votes on the NEA All-MLB All-Star team. 

This is 1972—

And 1973—

1975 brought more WAR honors—

And finally, 1976—

So, based on WAR, White was First- or Second-team All-American League six times include being First-team All-MLB in 1970 and First-team All-AL in 1970 and 1971. 

As per Baseball-Reference.com here are some of the categories White led the American League in. 

And again, via Baseball-Reference.com and the JAWS method—

White is ranked just behind HOFer Jim Rice...

Summation? White is much better than most of us remember. He was a great fielder, an average arm but a pretty good hitter (with a bow-legged stance) and a great eye who drew a ton of walks, some pop in his bat, and he ran the bases very well and could steal you a base and lay down a sacrifice bunt.

He played through the transition Yankee years (the mediocre teams from the early 1960s championships until the late 1970s championships) and was a contributor to the Yankee teams that won two World Series rings in 1977 and 1978. 

 And in today's game where the batters either strikeout, walk, or homer there should be room in the discussion for players like Roy White. 

Let's Begin With Some Re-done Cards of Johnny Bench

 By JT

Of Course, the 1974 Topps didn't need to be re-done, it's perfect. And some others were good enough.